The total fertility rate in the United States, the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, has generally declined over the past two decades. In 2025, the U.S. fertility rate stands at 1.6 births per woman, according to United Nations estimates, and is projected to remain roughly stable through the end of the century.
Long-term demographic trends, including higher educational attainment among women, later marriage, and fewer teen births, have contributed to the decline. Americans in their 20s and 30s are planning to have fewer children than a decade ago.
The U.S. is not alone in experiencing declining fertility. China and India, the world’s most populous countries, have seen long-term reductions. China’s fertility rate is now among the lowest globally at one birth per woman.
Since 1950, total fertility rates have fallen in every region of the world. In Latin America and the Caribbean, births per woman dropped from 5.8 in 1950 to 1.8 in 2025. Africa, historically the region with the highest fertility, has seen a decline from 6.5 to 4.0 births per woman over the same period. Currently, Europe and Northern America have the world’s lowest fertility rates at 1.4 and 1.6 births per woman, respectively.
By 2100, the UN projects fertility rates to decline further in most regions: Africa from 4.0 to 2.0, Oceania from 2.1 to 1.7, Asia from 1.9 to 1.7, and Latin America and the Caribbean from 1.8 to 1.6. Northern America is expected to remain stable, while Europe may see a slight increase.
Replacement-level fertility, the rate required to maintain a population, is roughly 2.1 births per woman. Africa is the only region above this level, while Asia, Europe, Oceania, Latin America, and Northern America are all below, indicating potential population decline in future generations.
The share of births to women under 25 is projected to fall in every region by 2100. In Africa, this proportion will drop from 41% to 24%, and in Latin America and the Caribbean from 39% to 17%. In most regions, women aged 25 to 34 will account for the majority of births.
Several countries have introduced policies to encourage higher birth rates, including financial incentives, extended parental leave, and expanded childcare access. China, since ending its one-child policy in 2016, now offers subsidies of around $500 per child per year until age three. Other East Asian governments have also enhanced parental leave and childcare support.
European countries are among the highest spenders on family programmes. In 2021, Poland dedicated 3.6% of its GDP to family benefits, including cash transfers for children, while Iceland spent 3.8%, the highest share in the OECD. By comparison, the U.S. spent about 1.0% of GDP on family support, primarily for services and tax breaks.
Adapted from Pew research.
